2015 NFL Predictions by 538.com
FiveThirtyEight’s 2015 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team’s chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning Super Bowl 50. Playoff probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations of the season and will update after each game.
| AverageAvg. Simulated Season | Playoff Odds | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sim. Results | Playoff Odds | ||||||||||
Elo Rating
Elo
| 1-Week Change | Team | Division |
Wins
W
|
Losses
L
| Point Diff. |
Make Playoffs
Make Play- offs
|
Win Division
Win Div.
| First Round Bye |
Win Super Bowl
Win Super Bowl
| |
| 1675 |
+11
|  | New England | AFC East | 11.6 | 4.4 | +119.6 | 81% | 60% | 47% | 15% |
| 1657 |
-20
|  | Seattle | NFC West | 10.0 | 6.0 | +84.5 | 66% | 41% | 27% | 11% |
| 1615 |
+14
|  | Green Bay | NFC North | 10.3 | 5.7 | +73.0 | 72% | 61% | 33% | 9% |
| 1610 |
+14
|  | Denver | AFC West | 10.2 | 5.7 | +67.8 | 62% | 43% | 27% | 7% |
| 1593 |
+3
|  | Dallas | NFC East | 10.1 | 5.9 | +58.6 | 68% | 54% | 30% | 7% |
| 1563 |
-14
|  | Baltimore | AFC North | 8.7 | 7.3 | +36.0 | 45% | 33% | 13% | 3% |
| 1563 |
+23
|  | Kansas City | AFC West | 9.4 | 6.5 | +40.7 | 50% | 31% | 18% | 4% |
| 1562 |
+22
|  | Cincinnati | AFC North | 9.0 | 6.9 | +39.9 | 48% | 37% | 16% | 4% |
| 1559 |
+25
|  | Buffalo | AFC East | 9.6 | 6.4 | +51.0 | 50% | 22% | 16% | 4% |
| 1557 |
+16
|  | Arizona | NFC West | 8.8 | 7.1 | +24.1 | 44% | 24% | 14% | 4% |
| 1556 |
-25
|  | Indianapolis | AFC South | 9.2 | 6.8 | +48.8 | 61% | 55% | 17% | 4% |
| 1552 |
-11
|  | Pittsburgh | AFC North | 8.0 | 8.0 | +11.8 | 37% | 26% | 10% | 3% |
| 1552 |
+16
|  | Carolina | NFC South | 9.9 | 6.0 | +62.6 | 64% | 51% | 26% | 5% |
| 1547 |
+19
|  | San Francisco | NFC West | 8.7 | 7.3 | +24.1 | 42% | 22% | 13% | 4% |
| 1538 |
+15
|  | San Diego | AFC West | 9.2 | 6.8 | +29.1 | 46% | 25% | 15% | 3% |
| 1533 |
-12
|  | Philadelphia | NFC East | 8.2 | 7.7 | +24.2 | 41% | 28% | 11% | 3% |
| 1523 |
-15
|  | Detroit | NFC North | 7.8 | 8.2 | +4.6 | 35% | 23% | 9% | 2% |
| 1501 |
+18
|  | Miami | AFC East | 8.1 | 7.9 | -7.5 | 30% | 10% | 7% | 2% |
| 1497 |
+20
|  | St. Louis | NFC West | 8.2 | 7.8 | -7.4 | 32% | 13% | 7% | 2% |
| 1482 |
-23
|  | Houston | AFC South | 7.4 | 8.5 | -8.2 | 31% | 26% | 5% | 1% |
| 1476 |
-3
|  | N.Y. Giants | NFC East | 7.2 | 8.7 | -9.6 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 1% |
| 1474 |
+12
|  | Atlanta | NFC South | 8.7 | 7.3 | +7.4 | 41% | 27% | 12% | 1% |
| 1470 |
-16
|  | New Orleans | NFC South | 7.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 31% | 19% | 7% | 1% |
| 1463 |
+23
|  | N.Y. Jets | AFC East | 7.7 | 8.2 | -5.7 | 23% | 8% | 5% | 1% |
| 1460 |
-19
|  | Minnesota | NFC North | 6.4 | 9.6 | -55.7 | 18% | 11% | 3% | 1% |
| 1405 |
-14
|  | Chicago | NFC North | 5.5 | 10.5 | -78.0 | 9% | 5% | 1% | <1 td=""> |
| 1399 |
-23
|  | Cleveland | AFC North | 5.0 | 11.0 | -111.0 | 6% | 4% | 1% | <1 td=""> |
| 1385 |
+45
|  | Tennessee | AFC South | 6.7 | 9.2 | -34.0 | 19% | 15% | 3% | <1 td=""> |
| 1366 |
-22
|  | Oakland | AFC West | 4.5 | 11.5 | -125.8 | 4% | 2% | <1 td=""> | <1 td=""> |
| 1354 |
-18
|  | Washington | NFC East | 4.6 | 11.4 | -111.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1 td=""> |
| 1340 |
-16
|  | Jacksonville | AFC South | 4.5 | 11.5 | -118.4 | 6% | 4% | <1 td=""> | <1 td=""> |
| 1331 |
-45
|  | Tampa Bay | NFC South | 4.6 | 11.4 | -130.5 | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1 td=""> |
| AverageAvg. Simulated Season | Playoff Odds | ||||||||||
| Sim. Results | Playoff Odds | ||||||||||
Elo Rating
Elo
| 1-Week Change | Team | Division |
Wins
W
|
Losses
L
| Point Diff. |
Make Playoffs
Make Play- offs
|
Win Division
Win Div.
| First Round Bye |
Win Super Bowl
Win Super Bowl
| |
Illustration by Dan Matutina. Additional contributions from Aaron Bycoffe and Ritchie King.
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