AUG. 24, 2017 AT 1:59 PM

Which College Football Teams Do The Most With The Least Talent? (And Vice Versa)

By Neil Paine

Filed under College Football

Baker Mayfield and the Sooners have overachieved.

STEPHEN LEW / ICON SPORTSWIRE VIA GETTY IMAGES

College football can feel like a hopelessly deterministic sport sometimes. In this week’s preseason AP poll, for instance, it was revealed that the recruiting machines at Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State and Southern Cal are also the top favorites to win the College Football Playoff. Ho-hum.

But although raw talent has a pretty strong correlation with on-field success, it doesn’t completely guarantee it. Teams with good rosters can always let their fan bases down, while others can achieve far better results than we would expect from their recruiting hauls alone. (Hello, service academies!)

To get a sense of which teams have gotten the most — and the least — out of their talent, I took ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ratings for each FBSprogram over the past two seasons,¹ and plotted them against 247Sports.com’s Team Talent Composite scores. (The latter measures a roster’s strength by tracking how many highly touted prospects a team has at its disposal.) The overall relationship between FPI and roster talent is relatively strong — recruiting scores explain about 65 percent of the variation in team performance — but some teams have managed to rise above college football’s penchant for predestination.

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I mentioned the service academies — Air Force, Navy and Army — because they are the biggest outliers here. Although their recruiting process works largely the same as at other schools (with the biggest exception being a lack of scholarships specifically for athletics), they face unique barriers to hauling in top talent, including mandatory military service after graduation, tougher academic requirements and even size restrictions for incoming players.² That’s why, according to the Team Talent Composite, the academies are mostly filled with players who were lightly regarded coming out of high school. But whether because of their emphasis on character and discipline, or just their predilection for triple-option schemes that can trip up the most formidable defenses, these programs have produced far better results than their talent would suggest.

Among Power Five schools, the top outperformers are a generally unsurprising collection of well-coached programs, such as the perennially overachieving Wisconsin Badgers, the Washington schools (both UW and WSU), plus Bill Snyder’s K-State and Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State squads. But ahead of them all might be a surprising team: the Oklahoma Sooners. OU got a reputation for losing big games under former coach Bob Stoops, but Stoops probably should have also gotten more credit for putting the Sooners in position to play those games in the first place, given the way they outplayed the expectations of their recruiting classes.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, there are programs that recruit like crazy but achieve only modest outcomes, like South Carolina, Texas and Georgia. The latter two in particular are storied programs that recruit off of their prestige, but both teams have found a way to mess up that advantage in recent seasons. There’s also no shortage of teams that field average talent but manage to be awful anyway, like Kansas and Rutgers. All of these schools serve as testament to the importance of coaching and player development in any program’s fate. Although a team like Nick Saban’s dominating Alabama squad can be No. 1 in recruiting and No. 1 in performance on the field, most schools have to make the best out of what they’ve got.

How much bang does your favorite school get for its recruiting buck? Find out in our searchable table below.

College football teams’ success vs. their recruiting programs

Team Talent Composite vs. Football Power Index rating for FBS college football programs, 2015-16

				FOOTBALL POWER INDEX
▲▼	TEAM▲▼	CONF.▲▼	TALENT▲▼	ACTUAL▲▼	VS. EXPECTED▲▼
1	Air Force	MW	57.8	+1.4	+24.3
2	Western Kentucky	C-USA	377.7	+11.8	+18.1
3	Navy	American	324.8	+6.4	+15.4
4	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	323.1	+5.0	+14.1
5	Western Michigan	MAC	442.6	+9.1	+11.9
6	Memphis	American	416.5	+6.8	+11.0
7	Temple	American	449.3	+7.5	+10.0
8	Oklahoma	Big 12	776.7	+24.4	+9.8
9	Washington	Pac-12	683.5	+19.3	+9.6
10	Toledo	MAC	444.9	+6.6	+9.3
11	Army	FBS Indep.	159.1	-8.5	+9.2
12	Washington State	Pac-12	531.7	+10.6	+8.8
13	Wisconsin	Big Ten	639.8	+15.9	+8.4
14	Kansas State	Big 12	504.5	+8.7	+8.3
15	Oklahoma State	Big 12	641.8	+15.7	+8.1
16	Louisville	ACC	647.6	+16.0	+8.1
17	Brigham Young	FBS Indep.	525.2	+9.4	+8.0
18	Baylor	Big 12	639.8	+15.4	+7.9
19	Clemson	ACC	826.8	+25.0	+7.8
20	Iowa	Big Ten	565.9	+11.3	+7.7
21	Boise State	MW	558.9	+10.9	+7.7
22	Houston	American	542.1	+9.9	+7.6
23	Utah	Pac-12	577.2	+11.6	+7.4
24	San Diego State	MW	488.5	+6.9	+7.4
25	TCU	Big 12	648.0	+15.1	+7.2
26	Louisiana Tech	C-USA	444.7	+4.4	+7.1
27	West Virginia	Big 12	640.2	+14.0	+6.5
28	North Carolina	ACC	676.3	+15.5	+6.2
29	Utah State	MW	344.3	-2.0	+6.0
30	Tulsa	American	406.6	+0.9	+5.6
31	Colorado	Pac-12	534.2	+6.8	+4.8
32	USF	American	546.8	+7.3	+4.7
33	Ohio State	Big Ten	904.9	+25.6	+4.3
34	Georgia Tech	ACC	586.4	+8.8	+4.2
35	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	413.3	-0.3	+4.1
36	Alabama	SEC	982.3	+29.3	+4.0
37	Minnesota	Big Ten	525.8	+5.3	+3.8
38	Pittsburgh	ACC	630.5	+10.6	+3.6
39	Michigan	Big Ten	852.0	+22.1	+3.6
40	Stanford	Pac-12	772.2	+17.9	+3.5
41	Virginia Tech	ACC	652.6	+11.6	+3.5
42	Troy	Sun Belt	363.0	-3.8	+3.3
43	Northern Illinois	MAC	392.0	-2.3	+3.3
44	California	Pac-12	613.6	+9.2	+3.2
45	Ohio	MAC	351.6	-4.8	+2.9
46	N.C. State	ACC	613.3	+8.9	+2.8
47	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	439.8	-0.5	+2.5
48	Ole Miss	SEC	786.2	+17.4	+2.3
49	Central Michigan	MAC	384.3	-3.8	+2.1
50	Mississippi State	SEC	679.6	+11.5	+2.0
51	Middle Tennessee State	C-USA	423.2	-2.2	+1.7
52	Colorado State	MW	400.7	-3.4	+1.7
53	Arkansas	SEC	692.2	+11.9	+1.7
54	Tennessee	SEC	812.2	+18.0	+1.6
55	New Mexico	MW	364.5	-5.7	+1.3
56	Southern Miss	C-USA	456.1	-1.0	+1.2
57	Northwestern	Big Ten	604.7	+6.4	+0.8
58	Bowling Green	MAC	413.1	-3.8	+0.7
59	LSU	SEC	903.5	+21.8	+0.6
60	Wyoming	MW	315.5	-9.0	+0.6
61	Idaho	Sun Belt	259.6	-11.9	+0.5
62	Texas Tech	Big 12	623.0	+6.8	+0.2
63	Penn State	Big Ten	737.4	+12.3	-0.3
64	East Carolina	American	422.9	-4.5	-0.5
65	Florida State	ACC	898.3	+20.1	-0.8
66	Duke	ACC	581.5	+3.4	-1.0
67	Wake Forest	ACC	507.6	-0.6	-1.1
68	Michigan State	Big Ten	717.5	+10.3	-1.2
69	Iowa State	Big 12	540.6	+0.9	-1.4
70	Boston College	ACC	534.0	+0.2	-1.7
71	Miami	ACC	759.6	+11.8	-1.9
72	Texas A&M	SEC	822.5	+15.1	-1.9
73	Florida	SEC	794.1	+13.5	-2.0
74	Indiana	Big Ten	562.3	+1.3	-2.1
75	Nebraska	Big Ten	695.8	+8.2	-2.1
76	Syracuse	ACC	514.5	-1.3	-2.2
77	San Jose State	MW	408.5	-7.0	-2.3
78	Georgia State	Sun Belt	328.7	-11.3	-2.5
79	Nevada	MW	385.0	-8.5	-2.6
80	Old Dominion	C-USA	333.4	-11.3	-2.7
81	Illinois	Big Ten	527.4	-1.5	-3.0
82	Auburn	SEC	865.4	+16.2	-3.0
83	Vanderbilt	SEC	614.4	+3.0	-3.1
84	Cincinnati	American	518.1	-2.1	-3.1
85	USC	Pac-12	931.8	+19.5	-3.2
86	Ball State	MAC	357.9	-10.8	-3.5
87	Missouri	SEC	638.3	+3.8	-3.6
88	UNLV	MW	354.5	-11.4	-3.9
89	Notre Dame	FBS Indep.	849.8	+14.4	-4.0
90	Oregon	Pac-12	747.9	+9.0	-4.1
91	Arizona	Pac-12	611.6	+1.6	-4.4
92	Connecticut	American	412.9	-9.0	-4.6
93	Marshall	C-USA	487.6	-5.1	-4.6
94	UCLA	Pac-12	806.2	+11.3	-4.8
95	Arizona State	Pac-12	687.5	+5.1	-4.9
96	Kentucky	SEC	643.3	+2.2	-5.4
97	New Mexico State	Sun Belt	259.4	-18.0	-5.5
98	Akron	MAC	428.2	-9.2	-5.6
99	Kent State	MAC	336.2	-14.3	-5.8
100	Oregon State	Pac-12	534.8	-4.0	-5.9
101	UTEP	C-USA	273.3	-17.9	-6.2
102	Massachusetts	FBS Indep.	347.3	-14.1	-6.2
103	Buffalo	MAC	330.0	-15.2	-6.4
104	FIU	C-USA	361.5	-13.6	-6.5
105	Tulane	American	398.1	-11.7	-6.5
106	Texas-San Antonio	C-USA	377.0	-13.1	-6.8
107	Eastern Michigan	MAC	344.5	-15.1	-7.0
108	Louisiana-Lafayette	Sun Belt	425.8	-11.4	-7.6
109	Georgia	SEC	874.9	+12.0	-7.7
110	Purdue	Big Ten	523.5	-6.6	-7.9
111	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	307.8	-17.9	-7.9
112	Florida Atlantic	C-USA	405.0	-12.9	-8.0
113	SMU	American	460.4	-10.1	-8.1
114	South Alabama	Sun Belt	378.3	-14.7	-8.4
115	Virginia	ACC	643.0	-1.1	-8.6
116	Miami (OH)	MAC	407.6	-13.4	-8.6
117	Maryland	Big Ten	627.9	-1.9	-8.7
118	Hawaii	MW	385.3	-14.8	-8.9
119	South Carolina	SEC	716.3	+2.0	-9.4
120	UCF	American	497.4	-9.7	-9.6
121	Rice	C-USA	397.2	-15.1	-9.8
122	Texas	Big 12	830.1	+7.3	-10.1
123	Charlotte	C-USA	317.3	-19.7	-10.2
124	Fresno State	MW	403.8	-15.9	-11.0
125	North Texas	C-USA	366.1	-18.1	-11.2
126	Texas State	Sun Belt	356.1	-20.6	-13.2
127	Rutgers	Big Ten	593.9	-8.6	-13.6
128	Kansas	Big 12	495.5	-14.4	-14.2

SOURCES: 247SPORTS, ESPN STATS & INFORMATION GROUP