Ohio State is going to beat Oregon. Soundly.

I have no stats or advanced stats or Zodiac hints to back up that claim, and I realize Oregon has Heisman winner Marcus Mariota going against Ohio State's No. 3 quarterback in Monday's national title game. I realize the Ducks are heavy favorites and that most of the experts are picking them, and that the Buckeyes play in what my friend Drew Sharp calls a "flea-ridden dog" of a league.

None of that can trump the eyeball test. As someone who covers Michigan State football, I got to watch the Spartans play — and lose to — both of these teams, and the bottom-line takeaway is this: The Buckeyes are too strong, too athletic and (gasp with Drew) too fast for the Ducks. 

Now for the caveats. MSU lost, 46-27, at Oregon on Sept. 6. Ohio State came to Spartan Stadium and beat the Spartans, 49-37, on Nov. 8. And if the Spartans and Buckeyes have taught us anything in the past two seasons, it's that teams can change over a couple of months. 

The November 2013 Spartans, on their way to the Rose Bowl, would have bludgeoned the September 2013 Spartans. Can you imagine what the Buckeyes we saw truck Alabama would do to the ones who lost at home to Virginia Tech in September? 

Likewise, Oregon may be much better now than in September. The Ducks were dominant in dismantling Florida State — which, by the way, comes from a league with at least as many fleas as the Big Ten has.

But this MSU team was better in November than September, too, and the final scores of those two games are misleading. The Spartans dominated Oregon for a solid 20 minutes in one of the best environments in the game, scoring 20 straight points and leading, 27-18, with less than five minutes to play in the third quarter.

This was an MSU team with new faces and communication issues on defense, and a rushing attack that was well shy of what it became. Jeremy Langford was dealing with a tender ankle in that game, clearly not himself.

Throw in some Mariota magic, a few missed chances from Connor Cook and a garbage-time Oregon touchdown, and you have a toss-up game with a deceiving final score. I said it then and will again: MSU beats Oregon at least five out of 10 times on a neutral field.

Ohio State at Michigan State was not a toss-up game. It was a butt-kicked game, and the Spartans were on the wrong end.

Yes, MSU looked to be in control late in the first half, seemingly up two touchdowns before a holding call brought back a Langford touchdown — followed by a missed field goal, followed by an OSU catch-and-go for a score to tie and change the game. 

But there was never a sense that night that MSU's defense had any idea how to stop Ohio State. That was the birth of the OSU team that will play Monday night.

And although most of the attention went to quarterback J.T. Barrett and his passing excellence, that game was won up front. The much-improved OSU offensive line and the gifted Ezekiel Elliott — a lot more people know his name now — had their way against MSU's front seven.

MSU's defense gave up big chunks to the Ducks and lost track of Mariota at times, but also got five three-and-outs in that game. A better MSU defense got none, at home, at night, against Ohio State. It was a stunning sight, still vivid now. 

Speaking of which, a week earlier I went to Ohio State to watch the Buckeyes beat up on Illinois. Mostly, to talk to them about MSU afterward (they were fired up, as I recall). 

Late in the game, a guy named Cardale Jones relieved Barrett, made some beastly runs, threw a couple of touchdown passes. 

"So that's No. 3, eh?" I thought.

The quarterback position will be key Monday, as always. Maybe Mariota will be too good for his defense's inevitable shredding to matter. Maybe Jones will finally play like a third-string quarterback.
From what I've seen, unless Jones flat-out loses this game with a slew of mistakes, the Buckeyes are going to win it. And they're going to leave no doubt.

Championship game
Matchup: Oregon (13-1) vs. Ohio State (13-1).
Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. Monday, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas.
TV: ESPN.
Line: Ducks by 61/2.